Mariners: 4 observations ahead of ALDS Game 5 versus Tigers

As the Mariners prepare for the winner-takes-all game with the Tigers, here’s our main takeaways from Thursday’s workout day news conference.

Prior to this AL Division Series between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers, there were plenty of people predicting it wouldn’t go the full five games. Armed with homefield advantage, a 5-1 season record versus the Tigers and just the better overall roster, the thinking was the Mariners would have already advanced to the AL Championship Series to face the Toronto Blue Jays.

However, in classic Mariners style here we are, with the two teams playing a winner-takes-all Game Five on Friday evening in Seattle. Throughout the history of the M’s things have never gone smooth even when seemingly being set up to do so, and in many ways it was almost fated to come down to the wire for their chances of moving on.

There are plenty of storylines to consider as the Mariners and Tigers prepare to face off one last time at T-Mobile Park. Here are four observations from the M’s ALDS workout day news conference on Thursday:

1) George Kirby has been here before

There was plenty of debate following Game Four, about who the Mariners would go with to start the decider on Friday night in Seattle. There were genuine cases to be made for both George Kirby and Luis Castillo, with M’s manger Dan Wilson eventually deciding to go with the former.

It’s tough to much question either pitcher getting the nod, but it does help that Kirby has been in this type of situation before, having started Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS versus the Houston Astros and with the Mariners facing elimination. Yes the M’s eventually lost 1-0 after a 18-inning marathon, but Kirby stood tall – and as a rookie mind – in allowing just six hits, no walks or runs over seven standout innings.

Kirby spoke to the media on Thursday and was asked about his previous experience in a high-pressure playoff situation and how much he can lean on this. He said:

“I think it definitely helps to have a little experience under my belt a couple of years ago. It kind of helps with how you deal with all the nerves and all that kind of stuff that goes into the game, but I’m really excited to once again take the ball and I’m just going to go out there and give my all.”

2) Small margin for error but plenty of bullpen help

Aside from his previous playoff experience, another thing which will help Kirby is that it’s not all on him. With everything that’s at stake the Mariners will have a full bullpen at their disposal including Castillo, who himself has been able to have the full ‘normal’ four days rest in between games after starting on Sunday.

Given Kirby’s previous struggles with Kerry Carpenter specifically, the Mariners don’t have to gamble with keeping their righty in and risking a repeat of what happened on Saturday in the fifth inning. If the vibe isn’t good in a similar scenario on Friday, then take Kirby out and bring in someone else to face Carpenter (or whoever).

This said, don’t expect a different approach by Kirby while he’s in there, despite everything which is at stake. He’s going to do what he always does while also having faith in whoever replaces him, as he said:

“That doesn’t change anything for me. I’m just going to go out there, give the team the best chance to win, go as long as I can and whoever comes in after me is going to go in and shut it down.”

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3) Mariners gameplan for a familiar foe in Tarik Skubal

The number one storyline heading into Game Five is how the Mariners will cope with Tarik Skubal. On the one side there are those who believe the M’s will do well given they are 3-0 in the three games they’ve faced him this season, but this is countered by understandable concern their good fortune is overdue to end versus a pitcher set to win a second consecutive AL Cy Young Award.

If nothing else at least the Mariners are used to facing arguably the best pitcher in the game – Paul Skenes also has a legitimate claim – so will have a good idea about how to handle him. M’s manager Dan Wilson was asked about finding the right balance between getting Skubal’s pitch count up versus being aggressive, and he said:

“That has been a key to our success the last times we’ve faced him is being able to put some pitches on him, especially during the regular season. Sometimes that’s controllable, sometimes it’s not. If he’s attacking the zone and getting pitches in the zone early, you can’t be as passive. But our guys, that’s one of the things they do really well is they can adjust and I think tomorrow will be no different. It is a balance, but these guys have seen him now three times and have a pretty good idea what to expect and we’ll take that gameplan out there tomorrow and be ready to go.”

This is a homecoming of sorts for Skubal, who played college ball at Seattle University and was drafted in 2018 by the Tigers. Of note, he has a 3.77 ERA in five career starts versus the Mariners, a 3.57 ERA at T-Mobile Park specifically in three outings and a 4.58 ERA in the three meetings this season.

4) The right mentality for a winner-takes-all scenario

One of the things which stood out following Game Four in Detroit, was how relaxed the mood seemed in the clubhouse. There was a collective mindset of having already moved on from the rough 9-3 loss and focusing on Friday’s series finale back in Seattle.

Wilson was asked what this mentality can do for the players and where it came from. He said:

“I think this is a group that has come back well and understands what they need. Yesterday obviously it was a tough ballgame for us, but everything’s still in front of us. We have control and it felt good that the guys were staying positive, because that’s where we need to be. I think they understand what they need, what’s at stake here and they understand the moment very well. One of the things they have done all season long especially toward the later part of the year is play loose and staying loose. And being in that state of mind has worked very, very well for this group and that’s why they’re trying to stay right there.”

It does help that the Mariners have plenty of experience and leaders on the roster who can help inspire others, including the likes of Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, Eugenio Suárez and Castillo. Friday will be the ultimate test for a team forged on a collective strong mental fortitude and with players willing to fight for each other, so if nothing else, they are about as prepared as you can expect them to be ahead of one of the biggest games in franchise history.

Photos court​‌esy of Tim Rodgers Photography

What’s your main reason to be confident ahead of Game 5, as well as your biggest concern? Most importantly though, what’s your prediction for who will advance to the ALCS against the Blue Jays? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.