Mariners fighting against recent history following 6-5 loss to Rays

Everything is going wrong for the Mariners at the worst possible time, leading to questions about if they will still make the playoffs?

What’s in a number? Well, it depends on the situation surrounding it. For example, a one-game difference between two teams in the standings doesn’t sound like much, until you add in that this how far out of a wild card spot the Mariners finished in each of the past two seasons.

How about holding a 10.0 game lead in your division? This sounds great doesn’t it? Until you add in that this is where the Mariners stood in the AL West last year on June 18, before gradually losing a grip and missing out on the playoffs altogether.

We mention all of this not to induce anxiety and panic within the Mariners fanbase, but to serve as a warning for what might be coming in Seattle. With the 6-5 loss on Tuesday night in Tampa Bay to the Rays, the M’s have now lost six consecutive series on the road and have just a 6-15 record away from home overall since the All-Star Break.

Mariners’ playoff odds still looking good

On the positive side, the Mariners do still have a 1.5 game edge for the third and final AL wild card spot. Further, FanGraphs maintain faith in the M’s, giving them odds of 79.6 percent to make the playoffs – well ahead of the Texas Rangers at 16.1 percent with the next-best odds.

However, none of this will have Mariners fans feeling particularly confident, just based on the history of a franchise which never seems to get the rub of the green. This is an extremely talented lineup which can play with anyone on their day, but it doesn’t change the reality they are seemingly throwing away what is meant to be a golden opportunity.

If ever there was a season to challenge for the best record in the AL then this was it, with no team dominating. And when the Mariners recently caught up to the Astros at the top of the AL West, they seemed primed to take control and win their first division title since 2001 and take aim at homefield advantage in the AL as a whole.

Instead, the Mariners have since gone in the wrong direction and now it’s striking that FanGraphs only give them odds of 29.4 percent to win the AL West, compared to 67.0 percent for the Astros. If the M’s do indeed fail to win the division they will only have themselves to blame, with this version of the Astros being a shadow of its former self.

Tuesday night’s game was an example of everything going wrong for the Mariners. Whether it be iron man Bryan Woo’s shortest start of the season, Dan Wilson being ejected in front of managerial legend Lou Piniella, the usually reliable Gabe Speier allowing what turned out to be the winning runs in the bottom of the seventh, or the M’s only managing one score from a bases-loaded, no outs situation in the top of the ninth.

Mariners players searching for answers

The players are perplexed with just how badly things are going right now, especially when considering the makeup of this roster. As per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, J.P. Crawford said:

“It’s not a lack of focus. It’s not lack of work. This is the hardest working group of men I’ve been with ever in my career. it’s not any of that. It’s just sometimes when we get knocked down in the fight, we stay down, and we can’t have that right now. All these games matter. If we get down early, we have to find a way to come back.”

For what it’s worth, at least the Mariners aren’t making any excuses. Speaking to the media postgame, Woo said:

“You’ve just got to take accountability for it. I mean at this point of the year you can make all the excuses you want. You’ve just got to play better. You’ve got to be better. You’ve got to have more urgency.”

Thoughts then turned to how agonizingly close the Mariners came to making the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, but with it ultimately just not being enough to get over the finish line. Woo said:

“I think all the guys in the locker room, especially the guys that have been here the last couple of years, are sick and tired of the last couple of years and what has happened in August and September. You know it’s up to us to flip the script and do something about it, and that’s all it really comes down to.”

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Away from home is where destiny will be determined

The Mariners have been much better at home this season and will play 13 of their final 19 games at T-Mobile Park. However, they must first navigate their way through the final four games of this current road trip, including the series finale in Tampa Bay and then three games in Atlanta against the Braves.

Ultimately, it does feel as if the Mariners’ playoff fate will be determined on the road. Their final road trip will include three games in Kansas City against a Royals team just 2.5 games behind them for the final Al wild card spot, followed by three in Houston against the Astros.

As usual, Mariners manager Dan Wilson deserves credit for trying to focus on the positives when it comes to his team. Speaking to the media postgame, he said:

“The effort our guys put in tonight, we’re heading in the right direction and we’ve just got to continue on this path.”

Mariners fans everywhere can only hope that Wilson’s optimism is well-placed, because at the moment things don’t look particularly good for this team. It’s imperative the M’s make the playoffs after just missing out the last two years, because the alternative does not bear thinking about in Seattle.

Photos court​‌esy of Tim Rodgers Photography

How do you predict the rest of this current road trip will play out for the Mariners. And looking ahead, what do you expect to happen in Kansas City and Houston during the final road trip of the 2025 regular season? Let us know in the comments section below.