Mariners prepare for series they dare not lose in Texas

Mariners fans should buckle up their seat belts, as they can expect a bumpy ride the rest of the way on the journey to make the playoffs.

And so it comes down to this for the Mariners – the final 10 games of the regular season. Depending on the mindset, this will either be the most exciting or excruciating time to be a fan. (Or perhaps a mixture of the two.)

As of Friday morning, the Astros have a half-game lead over both the Mariners and Rangers at the top of the AL West. As fate would have it, the Mariners will purely play just both of their divisional rivals the rest of the way.

In terms of any potential tie-breakers within the division, the Mariners are currently better-placed versus the Astros. With three more games to go against last year’s World Series champions, they hold an insurmountable 8-2 advantage.

On the other hand, the Rangers have a commanding 5-1 lead with seven more to play against the Mariners. In other words, Seattle can only afford to lose one more time to their Texas nemesis, although going 6-1 seems like an extremely tall task.

Head-to-head-to-head

In respect of the Astros against the Rangers, the former has already won the season series with a convincing 9-4 record. For what it’s worth, if the three teams finish the season level, the Mariners would actually be first as things stand in the three-way head-to-head tie-breaker. (Seattle: 9-7, Houston: 11-12, Texas: 9-10.)

Of course there is also the Blue Jays factor, with them among the four teams fighting for three playoff spots. The Mariners and Blue Jays finished their season series tied 3-3, with Seattle having the advantage in the second tie-breaker by virtue of their uncatchable record within their own division. (The Mariners are 29-13 overall versus the AL West with 10 to play, whereas the Blue Jays are 17-26 against the AL East with nine game left.)

Playoff odds for Mariners

If we bring playoff odds into the equation, Seattle is in the worst position of the four competing teams. At least as far as FanGraphs are concerned.

At the time of writing, the Astros have the best odds at 90.5 percent, followed by the Blue Jays at 76.8 percent. The Rangers are third with 68.7 percent odds, while the Mariners are at 63.9 percent.

Of course these odds will change daily the rest of the way, sometimes dramatically so. However, it is still something for the Mariners to be weary of as they proceed.

Dipoto feels the pressure

Jerry Dipoto summed up how Mariners fans have been feeling in recent weeks. During an appearance Thursday on Seattle Sports radio, the president of baseball operations said:

“Going down the stretch, every out mattered and you were hanging onto the edge of (your seat). Every loss felt like you just fell down and you can’t get back up. And then every win felt like the most exciting thing that’s ever happened.”

As already mentioned, the Mariners cannot afford to lose more than one more game versus the Rangers, if they are to win the season series. This means going no worse than 2-1 in Texas, where they are 0-3 so far in 2023.

Dipoto is well aware of how important the series at Globe Life Field is. He said:

“I think it goes without saying these will be the next three biggest games we’ve played all year. In some ways for a lot of our players, this will be a similar experience to what we felt last season when we went into our postseason series with Toronto and Houston.”

Along these lines, the playoffs effectively begin now for the Mariners. They’ve done extremely well to get back into the postseason race after playing .500 ball during the first half of the year, but now we get to find out what they’re really made of.

What’s your prediction for how the regular season will play out for the Mariners? Will they win the AL West, qualify as a wild card, or miss out altogether. Let us know in the comments section below.