By Paul L. Taylor Posted on

Mariners: 8 thoughts and predictions ahead of Cactus League play

Considering eight things to keep an eye on, as the Mariners prepare to open their spring training schedule on Friday versus the Padres.

It feels like only yesterday that the Seattle Mariners suffered their heart-breaking end to the 2025 season, by falling eight outs short of a first ever World Series appearance. And yet here we are again, with the M’s ready to open their 2026 Cactus League schedule on Friday against their fellow Peoria Sports Complex tenants, the San Diego Padres.

There’s plenty of reason for Mariners fans to be excited this year, ahead of arguably the most anticipated season since 2002, when the team was coming off their record-equalling 116-win campaign in 2001. As such, here are eight thoughts we have about the M’s, including several predictions for what lies ahead in 2026:

1) Cal Raleigh

Everyone accepts that Cal Raleigh is going to take a step back from last season, such was the magnitude of his historic 60-home run campaign as just the seventh player in Major League history to achieve this feat. So, what would be considered acceptable to make this a successful 2026 for him and help keep the Mariners in contention? Raleigh’s previous career-high was 34 homers, while FanGraphs Steamer projections have him pegged for 38 this coming season. We predict he will reach 40, which would more than help the M’s challenge once more for the AL West and beyond.

2) Josh Naylor

There’s no denying the immense impact Josh Naylor had on the Mariners after arriving in his trade from the Diamondbacks. However, it worked both ways, with him galvanized and fully invested in Seattle. The results were spectacular in just 54 games, on the way to setting new personal bests overall with a 3.1 bWAR, 160 hits, 30 steals and a .365 rOBA. Naylor is that rare breed who admits he loves hitting at T-Mobile Park, and over the course of a full first season in Seattle, this could become a career year for him.

3) Mariners rotation

Last season was a rough one for the Mariners rotation, as every one of their preferred starting five dealt with injury issues except Luis Castillo, somewhat ironic with him being the elder statesman of the group. In any event, the M’s lost 34 starts among them to injury. Contrast this with 2024 when the rotation enjoyed an almost ridiculous level of health, with just 13 starts lost to injury for the fab five. We’re not exactly going out on a limb here, but we predict the figure will be somewhere in the middle between 13 and 34 lost starts in 2026.

4) Brendan Donovan

As much as it was probably best for Eugenio Suárez to move on after his struggles with the bat when he returned to Seattle — specifically at T-Mobile Park — it doesn’t mean he won’t be missed. He was a fan favorite who was extremely popular among teammates, with his leadership and personality conducive to the harmonious vibe in the clubhouse. However, we suspect Brendan Donovan will prove to be a worthy replacement for Suárez in this respect, just based on his interviews so far in Peoria. Donovan comes across as very mature and disciplined, undoubtedly moulded by growing up as the son of a colonel in the U.S. Army, so expect this to provide a positive impact on the other players.

5) Potential detriment caused by WBC

The Mariners have the most players going to represent their countries at the upcoming World Baseball Classic with 16. This includes nine Major Leaguers and seven from the minors, with it being an understandable source of concern for the Mariners. Including the likes of Raleigh, Naylor, Julio Rodríguez and Andrés Muñoz, the last thing the team needs is any injuries. In any event, they will all see regular game action early in Cactus League play, prior to joining their respective international teams by the end of February.

6) A different vibe in Mariners team

Early impressions among the mainstream media at spring training in Peoria, is that the vibe of the team is not the same compared to previous ones. Among others, Shannon Drayer of Seattle Sports noted her surprise about how it feels like she is watching a different team in 2026. About how there seems to be more confidence and certainty, more expectations. In fairness this makes sense when considering how close the Mariners came to their first World Series last season, and it is hoped this new-found collective mentality proves fruitful come the business end of the campaign.

7) Dan Wilson

We won’t go as far as saying we’re amused, but it is interesting that there are still people who don’t believe Dan Wilson is the man to lead the Mariners. Yes we’re only entering his third year and second full season in charge, but the man has performed wonders in a short time, helped by his laid-back style being embraced by the players and providing a stark contrast to that of Scott Servais. Wilson’s .566 career winning percentage is best all time among M’s managers, And if you want to argue he’s only managed 196 games, we’ll counter that he’s just the second man to win an AL West title with the franchise and last season he took them closer than ever to a first ever World Series berth.

8) Cole Young and Colt Emerson

8) A look at the projected starting lineup alludes to the Mariners’ hoping that one of Cole Young and Colt Emerson will step up and fulfil their potential. As things stand Young is set to start at second base, meaning the versatile Donovan will play at third base. However, Emerson is causing plenty of excitement around Peoria as the team’s top-rated prospect and the expectation is that he will make his Major League debut sooner than later this coming season. For us, even though Young has a slight leg-up due to his own experience in the majors, we predict that it will be Emerson who ultimately plays more for the Mariners in 2026.

Photos court​‌esy of Tim Rogers Photography & Mariners Media

Leave a Reply